Melbourne Cup Special 2026

The Melbourne Cup is the most exciting and challenging race on the calendar for Trainers, Jockey's and Punters alike. This is the race where weight impact comes to the fore, as does the class and staying prowess of the horses themselves. 

 

Add the GFTT Database to understand when horses have been racing well against unsuitable tempos during the lead-up races. Tempo and finishing times can reveal who has had the easiest or toughest of runs, and the likely shape of today's race. 

The principles of finding the Melbourne Cup winner have not changed throughout the years. The Three Handled Trophy will belong to the right Horse, at the right weight, at the right time. 

 

Unlike some of the noise I have heard since the Cup draw was announced, I believe this year's edition will be run solidly early before riders get a chance to relax their horses down the back. The pressure will build again from behind the speed early enough to ensure a fast enough run race with the likely sweet spot in running being for horses settling just back of Midfield. 

 

1st  

No. 12 HOPEWELL ROCK 

Aiming to become the first horse to come through the Ebor and win the Melbourne Cup, Hopewell Rock is perfectly weighted as a 5yo carrying 5 kg under Weight for Age. He settled just back of midfield at Goodwood over 2816m before making his way between horses in the straight. 

 

Sharpened quickly enough to put the race to bed approaching the furlong, and if anything, may have hit the front slightly too soon. Just missed following a similar run in the Ebor, which this year is a Golden Ticket race to the Melbourne Cup. 

That nose second to Daiquiri Bay is as good as any Australian horse running second by a nose in a Caulfield Cup. It means the near miss gets him to Flemington without earning a penalty for the big one. 

 

The Ebor is past due a Cup winner after going agonisingly close on numerous occasions. The set up for Hopewell Rock looks ideal with Zac Lloyd able to bide his time from a near middle gate.  

Looks like the Irish have brought the right horse over with Hopewell Rock shaping as the right horse at the right time with the right weight. 

 

2nd 

No. 11 JUJA KIBO 

 

Juja Kibo can absolutely win the 2026 Melbourne Cup. He shapes as the best of the Aussie contingent, bringing plenty of class as the only recent G1 winner of the field. His win in The Metropolitan was dominant after settling closer off an even tempo. 

He really put them away that day with an impressive turn-of-foot matching the clock. Backed the win up by settling back from the wide gate off an unsuitable slow speed in the G2 Moonee Valley Cup. 

 

It was a patient ride by Sam Clipperton who expresses a lot of confidence in Juja Kibo by the way he rides him. This has been the perfect prep for a horse going into any Melbourne Cup, and I really don't have much between him and Hopewell Rock as the top two selections. 

 

3rd 

TRUSTYOURINSTINCT  

Gets in okay at 2.5 kg under Weight for Age while bringing genuine class and experience over from Ireland. He is a powerfully built gelding who will carry his weight well. 

 

J-Mac goes on to counteract the potentially poor draw in barrier 18. Don't mind this horse being drawn out a bit as he does have a big stride and a tendency to over race. 

 

Trustyourinstinct comes through the all-important Irish St Leger form which is the proven formular for overseas horses taking out the Cup. Won't want to be three-wide all race, but who can knock James McDonald right now?!! 

 

4th  

POINT OF LAW 

Northern Hemisphere 3yo who brings the X-Factor into the Cup. He is not a fully furnished horse yet and is a potential star in the making. 

 

Came back off the leader in a fast-run Geelong Cup as his only Australian start. He will have benefited from that run, which is why Ciaron Maher had him in. What Point Of Law won't appreciate is the 2 kg weight penalty imposed for winning the race. 

He didn't need the Golden Ticket from the Geelong Cup field as he was most likely gaining a start with 51 kg and 31st on order of entry at the time. 

 

Technically he is a 4yo by Australian standards, but being bred in Northern Hemisphere time, Point Of Law is at least 6 months younger than Australia's 4yo's.  The weight penalty to 53 kg means he is carrying 0.5 kg above Weight for Age assuming the Cup is run pushed to February to make up for the six-months from change of season. 

 

To put Point Of Law's weight in perspective, there have only been two Northern Hemisphere 3yo's to win the Melbourne Cup in the modern era. Rekindling carried 51.5 kg in 2017, while Cross Counter lumped 51 kg to victory in 2018. 

It would be a monumental victory should Point Of Law salute on the first Tuesday in November this year, but he should gain a good run with cover from behind the speed. Cannot be left out of the numbers.