Chapter 9

 CHAPTER 9  

 Tissue Markets  

 

 A market tells its own story, but value belongs to the punter who can read beyond the price.  

 Punters and bookmakers once wrote notes on their own betting markets using slips of tissue paper before heading to the track. Today, a Tissue Market refers to the serious bettor’s self‑made market for a race — a personal assessment of fair odds measured against those on offer. 

 

Serious punters use a tissue to search for value. Bookmakers use their own versions to frame early markets and adjust them as money arrives. Casual punters don’t need to price every race, but it is worth understanding how markets are framed. It explains what moves prices, how margins are built in, and why the public market behaves the way it does.  

 

A tissue assigns each horse a winning probability, with the full market adding to 100 per cent. In theory, there is little difference between rating a horse at 1% (100/1) and 0.5% (200/1), but there is a meaningful difference in price. 

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 Building Your Own Market  

 A horse’s previous starting price can help beginners. When assessing your tissue, consider today’s full picture: recent form, weight and class, suitability at the track and distance, track surface rating, trainer and jockey form, expected pace, and any gear changes. Be cautious with pace maps, as race tactics can differ from expectations.      

Reinforce the earlier hints from this book: 

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 Grouping Horses 

 Grouping simplifies the process:  

•    A — Main contender.  

•    B — Can make their presence felt.  

•    C — Wouldn’t surprise.  

•    D — Place preferred.  

•    E — Unlikely. 

•    F — Passing. 

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 Refining the Market  

 After grouping, check: 

 

 Converting Percentages to Prices  

 The formula is simple:   

•    Probability = 1 ÷ price  

•    Price = 1 ÷ probability 

 

 Understanding Overround and Naturalising the market  

 Bookmakers sell their markets above 100% to cover profit, taxes, and fees - known as the overround or bookmaker percentage. Calculating it strips out the margin and reveals the true odds. As the overround narrows with betting volume, we can crosscheck our tissues against market confidence.

 

 Naturalising the market towards the end of betting (when bookmakers have best adjusted the price according to punter's opinion) will help you to understand how well your own tissue has compared. 

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 Why This Matters  

 Capture bookmaker prices in the final two minutes — when the market is most efficient. Compare naturalised prices to your tissue. This shows:  

•    How your market compared.  

•    Where the market agrees.  

•    Where it disagrees.  

•    Reveals form trends the market gravitates towards. 

 

 Repetition sharpens instinct. Patterns emerge. You learn what factors the market respects — and what it often misreads. 

 

 Community, Learning, and Shared Insight  

 Before joining Racingbase, I became part of the Facebook group Punter’s First, an online racing community founded by Ken Mullins in 2017.  

As fewer Australians gather at tracks or pubs, the group has become a forum for sharing tips and hard-won racing knowledge, supported by a strong group of contributors, including administrator Corey McAneney. 

 

 Case Study: Stormsarrived — Reading the Market, Beating the Market  

 Combining the factors outlined by Racing Times Australia, refined through my time at Racingbase, led me to one clear selection in the 2025 Strathalbyn Cup: Stormsarrived.  

 

 By then, the Generic Flat Turf Time was fully refined. I understood which horses had been performing against unsuitable tempos and could accurately assess the benchmark class they’d been racing against. 

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